How to read prediction confidence
FootIQ's "confidence" is a probability: the model's estimate of how often a prediction like this one comes true.
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Confidence is a probability
A 72% confidence means: across many similar predictions, about 72 in 100 are expected to win and 28 to lose. It is not a rating of how sure anyone "feels".
Calibration
FootIQ calibrates its probabilities against past out-of-sample predictions, so the stated percentages match observed frequencies as closely as the data allows. Calibration is only reliable over large numbers of predictions.
Comparing with odds
Decimal odds imply a probability of roughly 1 ÷ odds, minus the bookmaker's margin. Odds of 1.40 imply about 71%. When a model's probability is far above the bookmaker's, FootIQ treats it with suspicion rather than as a bargain.
What confidence cannot tell you
- Whether this particular match will go that way.
- Anything about profit: a high win rate at short odds can still lose money.
- Information that was not in the data when the prediction was made.
See how our stated probabilities compare with reality on the track record.